Covid-19 fatalities in Italy equivalent to Second World War death toll

In a sobering estimate, Gian Carlo Blangiaro, the head of the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), predicts that Italy's 2020 mortality rate may exceed 700,000, surpassing the mortality rate of 1944 – a year during World War II – due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

The pandemic has undoubtedly left a significant impact on Italy's mortality rate, with the country experiencing a notable increase in deaths compared to previous years. This surge is primarily attributed to COVID-19 infections causing excess deaths above baseline mortality rates.

According to Blangiaro, as reported by Ansa, "2020 is not yet over, but a reasonable estimate suggests that we will surpass 700,000 deaths this year." This projected mortality rate is the highest since World War II.

Italy was the first European country to face a rapid spread of the coronavirus infection, with the outbreak beginning in Lombardy, a northern province of the country. The number of infected people in Italy has surpassed 65,000, as reported by the health ministry, and Italy currently holds fifth place in the world in terms of COVID-19 mortality rate.

The World Health Organization has linked the scale of the outbreak in Italy to the delayed response to the disease and the age of the country's population, which has an average age of 45 years as of the end of 2019.

The authorities in Italy have emphasized that victory over the infection could only be declared after a vaccine is developed. In response to the resurgence of COVID-19 cases this summer, new restrictions were imposed in the fall.

Despite the pandemic's impact on mortality, other mortality trends in Italy have shown a positive trajectory. For instance, there has been a continuous decline in AIDS-related mortality among people with HIV from 1997–1998 to 2020–2022, contributing to a general ongoing decrease in mortality from HIV-related causes.

Moreover, data on under-five mortality has steadily decreased over decades, including recent years up to 2023. Cancer incidence and mortality data through 2020 detail long-term epidemiological patterns, but there is no direct mention of pandemic-related effects.

Several articles discuss spatial trends and inequalities in mortality across Italy and other European countries, but without specific numbers for 2020 or COVID-19 impact. Global studies on causes of death provide projections to 2050 but do not focus on Italy’s 2020 pandemic mortality.

For precise figures on Italy’s 2020 mortality increase and detailed COVID-19 contribution, official Italian mortality statistics and excess deaths studies published by national health institutes or international bodies (WHO, Eurostat) would be required.