Increase in Mortality Rates vs. Birth Rates Among Baby Boomers: France Experiences More Deaths Than Births Since January
In a significant demographic shift, France is on the brink of crossing a symbolic threshold, with the natural balance expected to turn negative for the first time since 1944. Between June 2024 and May 2025, there were 1,500 more deaths than births in France, according to the latest data updated on August 1. By mid-2025, the negative natural balance is estimated to be approximately -13,659 people.
This trend is closely linked to the baby boomer generations, as noted by Professor Breton, a demography expert at the University of Strasbourg. He mentions a phenomenon "that we had seen coming." The decline in births and increase in mortality rates can be attributed to a combination of long-term social, economic, and demographic dynamics.
One of the primary factors is the demographic transition, a phenomenon common among developed countries. This transition involves declining fertility rates due to changes in societal norms, increased access to contraception, urbanization, and women's greater participation in the workforce.
The impact of World War II and subsequent population loss also played a significant role. The year 1944 marked the latter part of World War II, causing a demographic shock from which birth rates took time to recover. The post-war period initially saw a baby boom, but fertility declined again in the following decades.
Economic factors, such as financial insecurity, unemployment, and cost of living pressures, can discourage family formation and childbearing. Changes in attitudes towards motherhood or parenthood, rising rates of single-person households, and shifting personal priorities have also contributed to lower fertility rates.
Another factor is the aging population and resulting mortality rates. With advancements in healthcare, people live longer in France, increasing the proportion of elderly people. This demographic aging results in naturally higher mortality rates due to the larger elderly population. Over time, as birth rates fall and the elderly population grows, mortality can outpace births, leading to a negative natural population balance.
In recent months, influenza episodes at the beginning of the year may have accelerated mortality in France. The rise in infertility, which affected one in six people worldwide in 2023, according to the WHO, is another factor contributing to the decline in births in France.
Despite these trends, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) has exercised caution and refrained from making "precise predictions" about the natural balance in France. However, the daily death rate in France has increased by 2.5% compared to 2024, and the decline in the average number of births per day is down by 2.2% compared to the January-June 2024 period.
The presidential focus in France has been on the issue of declining fertility rates, with the decline being a long-term trend, as reported by Libération. The government will need to address these demographic challenges to ensure a sustainable and balanced population for the future.
- The decline in the average number of births per day in France has been influenced by a rise in infertility, a global issue that affected one in six people worldwide in 2023, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO).
- In the realm of health-and-wellness, advancing healthcare in France has contributed to the increased lifespan of its population, as seniors now constitute a larger proportion of the population, reflecting a natural trend of demographic aging that has resulted in higher mortality rates.
