Widening the vaccination priorities beyond just high-risk individuals in the U.S. for Covid-19 inoculation could potentially save a greater number of lives compared to the current strategy.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is set to make recommendations on who should receive the updated Covid-19 shot this season, with discussions centering around broadening the recommendations beyond high-risk individuals in the USA. A newly published analysis emphasizes the 'substantial' benefits of such a move.
According to the analysis, expanding vaccine recommendations to all ages in the USA could prevent an additional 26,000 hospitalizations and 1,000 deaths. This is in addition to the estimated 90,000 hospitalizations and 7,000 deaths that could be avoided by recommending updated vaccines for all ages, as opposed to just high-risk individuals.
The US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided nearly 20 rounds of projections estimating Covid-19 disease burden over the past five years, has been instrumental in informing decision-making on vaccination strategies. Last season's projections, first published by the Hub in June 2024, helped shape the discussions ahead of the ACIP meeting.
The Hub's models, which include a worst-case scenario where there is no vaccine recommendation and high immune escape, project that a universal vaccine recommendation would reduce hospitalizations by 11% and deaths by 13% in the USA. This is similar to the projections for this season, published by the Hub in June.
Dr. Justin Lessler, a leader with the modeling hub and professor of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina, stated that they continue to share their results with the CDC and are working to make them more easily available to a broader range of organizations who are providing vaccine guidance in the USA.
The US Food and Drug Administration has limited approval for this season's shots to adults 65 and older, and younger people who are at higher risk from Covid-19. However, the forthcoming vote from the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices could restrict access to the vaccine even further in the USA.
Adults ages 65 and older benefit the most under all vaccine scenarios, both directly and indirectly. The US primary COVID-19 vaccine schedule was expanded to school-age children in 2021, and booster recommendations were made in fall 2022.
The Hub's work is public and available for consideration by ACIP and other experts. The models' robust accuracy, despite some differences between actual epidemiological trends and assumptions made in the models, has been a source of confidence among researchers.
As the CDC prepares to make its recommendations, the analysis underscores the potential benefits of broadening vaccine recommendations, not just for those at highest risk, but for all people in the USA.
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